The two most important economic reports of the month were released this week. Both showed promising results for rates, and although rates improved, the reaction was smaller than expected. First up was November’s jobs report, which came out on Tuesday morning. It showed the highest unemployment rate since 2021 at 4.6%–well above the 4.4% forecast. Under…

Friends don’t let friends believe the myth that Fed rate cuts result in lower mortgage rates. If you’d rather not immerse yourself in the “why,” here is a solid “what:” This isn’t an anomaly. The Fed Funds Rate governs loans that last less than 24 hours whereas a mortgage can last 30 years.  Loans of…

Please note that this newsletter is fiercely apolitical. There is no judgment on whether any given political development is good or bad. We are only interested in how financial and housing markets are reacting.  December 10th will be the most interesting Fed announcement in more than a year.  It’s the first time since mid-2024 where…

This week marked the return of delayed economic data from the government shutdown. Specifically, we received the important jobs report that was set to come out in early October. While this is September’s data, and thus a bit stale, it was nonetheless responsible for the biggest volume spike in the bond market since the last…

Please note that this newsletter is fiercely apolitical. There is no judgment on whether any given political development is good or bad. We are only interested in how financial and housing markets are reacting.  Significant market volatility has been all over the news since the April 2nd tariff announcement, but this week went a long…

Last week, there was a curious, but not uncommon juxtaposition of widespread headlines claiming “lower mortgage rates” and our own headlines suggesting one of the biggest weekly jumps in years.  Neither were incorrect, but only one was timely. Survey-based, weekly data served as fuel for the “lower rate” headlines because it failed to capture most…

Whether we’re talking about mortgage rates or a quintessential yard stick of the rate world like the 10yr Treasury yield, it was the roughest week in quite a while.  Nearly every corner of the market continues reacting in volatile fashion to last week’s tariff announcement and the subsequent updates. Momentum toward higher rates took on…

It was a great week for fans of chaos, volatility, and low interest rates as all 3 were delivered in spades. Despite the presence of several big ticket economic reports, the catalyst was Wednesday afternoon’s tariff announcement followed by the international response on Thursday night. For the most part, the market has been responding to…

Heading into the week, market watchers knew (or thought they knew) that Friday’s PCE inflation data had a chance to help or hurt interest rates more than any other economic report.  When PCE came out higher than expected on Friday morning, market watchers knew (or thought they knew) what would happen next.  But instead, the opposite…

Interest rates improved fairly steadily throughout the week with the biggest drop seen after Wednesday’s Fed announcement. The Fed didn’t cut rates, nor was any rational person expecting them to at this meeting.  So why did rates move lower? First off, we have to specify the rates in question. The Fed only sets the Fed…