Even as most of the world has spent the past two days thinking or saying “I can’t believe it’s 2025 already,” mortgage rates won’t get back from vacation until next week.  They managed to make it through the entire holiday season without any major drama. That was in sharp contrast to the preceding month which…

“So long 2024. Don’t let the door hit ya!” Or… “another year closer to turning a longer-term corner in the housing market.” For better or worse, 2024 was a lot more like 2023 than most housing/mortgage pros were expecting. Existing home sales still have another month of reporting for 2024, but there’s no result that…

“If anything on Fed day ends up having an impact on mortgage rates, it would have to be changes in the Fed’s rate outlook and/or comments from Fed Chair Powell during the press conference that follows the rate announcement.” That’s how we closed out last week’s newsletter, and there were certainly some changes! The gist was…

Mortgage rates spent 5 out of 5 days moving higher this week.  Frustratingly, the damage wasn’t readily linked to normal motivations like stronger economic data or higher inflation. It served as a reminder that rates can move for reasons that transcend easy explanations. One of the easiest and most blatantly incorrect explanations for mortgage rate…

As of last week, rates were showing some signs of resilience, but they had to wait for the true test from this week’s jobs report. Spoiler alert: they passed the test. The jobs report (officially called “The Employment Situation”) is the most important economic report on any given month. Nothing else has as much power to…

After embarking on a volatile journey in early October, the past 2 weeks have been calmer for mortgage rates.  The present week was especially uneventful relative to the past 2 months.  The following chart measures volatility in the underlying bond market, which is the precursor for mortgage rate movement. As such, it’s no surprise to…

Mortgage rates bounced hard off the long term lows back in September and had jumped almost a full percent by last week. In addition to the elevated levels, there’s been plenty of volatility. Nonetheless, rates managed to avoid breaking last week’s ceiling–even if only just. Does that mean it’s time for hope? Hope is always…

Mortgage rates spent the entire month of October moving higher at a fairly quick pace. Some of that had to do with stronger economic data, but at least as much had to do with the bond market (bonds dictate rates) adjusting to election probabilities. As we’ve been advising in recent weeks, the consensus was that…

This newsletter strictly avoids politics except in cases where the political realm legitimately intersects with relevant events for housing and rates. Now is clearly one of those times. The discussion that follows contains no opinion or partisan leaning. Before getting started, let’s catch up with mortgage rates.  Things haven’t been great and much of the…

Last week’s newsletter warned that it was time to start thinking about incredibly high volatility potential due to events in the first few days of November. But as far as interest rates are concerned, the volatility is already here. Rates jumped sharply higher to start the new week in a move that still has market…