This newsletter strictly avoids politics except in cases where the political realm legitimately intersects with relevant events for housing and rates. Now is clearly one of those times. The discussion that follows contains no opinion or partisan leaning. Before getting started, let’s catch up with mortgage rates.  Things haven’t been great and much of the…

Last week’s newsletter warned that it was time to start thinking about incredibly high volatility potential due to events in the first few days of November. But as far as interest rates are concerned, the volatility is already here. Rates jumped sharply higher to start the new week in a move that still has market…

This newsletter series spent 3 straight weeks trying to remind readers that mortgage rates could go higher after the Fed rate cut, and then several more weeks warning about the high stakes jobs report.  We had no way of knowing how the future would play out then, and that continues to be the case, but it’s…

It’s been frustrating and potentially confusing to see mortgage rates move consistently higher after the Fed’s September 18th rate cut, but the Fed has nothing to do with the big rate spike of the past few weeks. The Fed’s rate cut wasn’t even the reason that rates went higher in the last part of September,…

There was a lot riding on Friday’s big jobs report with a weak result likely to reinvigorate a move to long-term lows and a strong result likely to push rates higher. It ended up being VERY strong, thus pushing rates higher VERY quickly. The following chart shows the day over day change in the 30yr…

‘Tis the season for things to be something other than what they appear to be, apparently. Lenders are talking about new loan limits, but they haven’t officially changed. News stories are saying rates went lower this week, but they’re higher. And there’s even talk of a big refi boom, but as you may have guessed,…

This week’s newsletter will be intentionally short in hopes of it being easier to share, read, and digest. It will offer several strategies for understanding the paradoxical disconnect between the Fed Funds Rate and mortgage rates.  For those interested in a deeper dive, the past 3 newsletters thoroughly covered it in detail: Why Fed Day…

It’s a foregone conclusion that the Fed will be cutting rates on Wednesday, September 18th. As exciting as they might sound, mortgage rates have already reaped the rewards.   If you’d like to understand this with a simple, nuts and bolts example, just consider the numerous occasions where mortgage rates have fallen BEFORE and moved HIGHER…

This week’s labor market data and Fed speeches solidified the case for the Fed to cut rates by at least 0.25% when it meets in 2 weeks.  With more and more buzz surrounding that rate cut, it’s only natural for consumers to enthusiastically wait for the lower mortgage rates that are sure to follow. All…

It’s still just over 3 weeks away, but questions are already ramping up regarding the impact of the Fed’s rate cut on mortgage rates.  Here is exactly what the rate cut itself will do: NOTHING! The easiest way to understand why is to ask yourself how mortgage rates have been able to move down by…